With eight of the world’s 10 best teams in the field, it’s no surprise that there’s a bit of a logjam atop the Euro 2024 oddsboard.
In fact, five teams have odds of +700 or shorter, led by favorite England at +350 to win the tournament.
However, the Three Lions have a history of falling short in major international soccer events. England’s last big tournament trophy came from the 1966 World Cup.
“I wouldn’t be shocked at all if they win, but England has disappointed many times before,” BetMGM trading manager Seamus Magee said.
Magee provides his behind-the-betting-counter insights on odds to win Euro 2024.
Playing Favorites
England came close to ending its tournament drought twice in the last three years. At Euro 2020 — which was actually contested in 2021, due to COVID — captain Harry Kane & Co. made it to the final against Italy. The match was tied 1-1 after regulation and overtime, but Italy won on penalty kicks.
In the 2022 World Cup, England reached the quarterfinals, where it lost to France 2-1.
BetMGM has England at the aforementioned +350 to win Euro 2024. That means a $100 bet would profit $350, for a $450 total payout, if Three Lions can end the country’s long national nightmare.
Pre-tournament bettors seem to have some faith in the favorite.
“England has the most money and second-most bets to win,” Magee said. “They have a ton of quality, but you wonder about how this mix of players can play together.”
Indeed, in a Euro tune-up match last week at Wembley Stadium, the English side gave up a 16th-minute goal to Iceland en route to a 1-0 loss. That brought back memories of Euro 2016, when Iceland dealt England a shocking 2-1 defeat to open the 16-team knockout stage.
“Sentiment was really low on England after losing a home friendly to Iceland,” Magee said of the June 7 setback. “But I try not to read too much into it. England is priced fairly, in my opinion. And the quality of the roster is very strong compared with the rest of the competition.”
Four More Ready to Roar
France lost a thrilling 2022 World Cup final to Lionel Messi’s Argentina side. Argentina led 2-0 after 36 minutes, but French star Kylian Mbappe struck in the 80th and 81st minutes, sending the game to overtime. Both teams scored in the extra 30 minutes, as well, but France fell short in penalty kicks 4-2.
In the 2018 World Cup, France won it all, capped by a 4-2 victory over Croatia.
BetMGM expects France to be very much in the mix again, with Les Bleus right behind England at +400 in Euro 2024 futures odds.
“France has a ridiculous roster. And there’s a good reason why they’re seeing so much action: back-to-back World Cup finals appearances, and a trip to the Euro final in 2016,” Magee said. “I’d be shocked if France doesn’t get back to the final.”
As the +550 third choice, Germany isn’t far behind England and France, nor is Portugal, as the +600 fourth choice in what could be Cristiano Ronaldo’s last dance. Spain follows as the +700 fifth choice in odds to win Euro 2024.
“Germany is an interesting team, because we’re starting to see new faces ready to make themselves known on the international stage. Jamal Musiala comes to mind,” Magee said. “Spain has been another popular choice among bettors. However, I don’t rate them higher than England, France or Portugal.
“And speaking of Portugal, they are deep at just about every position. It appears to be Ronaldo’s swan song for the national team, and you just know they are really going to go for it, to give him another title. I like Portugal’s chances a lot this year.”
If you like Portugal’s chances, too, a $100 bet would profit $600, for a $700 total payout should Ronaldo lift the trophy one more time.
Liking Lukaku & Co.
Belgium is +1800 in BetMGM’s Euro 2024 Championship odds market. So there’s perhaps some value there, as a $100 bet would profit a solid $1,800, for a $1,900 total payout if the Belgian side can navigate the field.
Magee is among those who think it’s possible.
“Belgium has an easy draw for the Group stage,” Magee said, alluding to a Group E that includes Slovakia, Romania and Ukraine.
Belgium is third in the world rankings — actually ahead of Euro favorite England, which is fourth — while Ukraine is 22nd, Romania 46th and Slovakia 48th.
“In the last World Cup, I tipped Belgium for a run, and they failed miserably. However, I’m coming back around with this squad,” Magee said. “I think they still have a lot to prove with an exceptional group of players, and with plenty of veteran leadership behind Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku.”
Medium Shots/Long Shots
There’s at least one popular long shot, and you can’t argue with the potential payout: A $100 bet would return $10,000 profit.
“Everyone’s favorite long shot Turkey is back in the Euros again this summer, and I’m staying away,” Magee said. “I need to see it before I believe it with this squad in a major tournament.”
After all, there’s a reason for Turkey’s odds of +10000 (100/1). For legit teams at somewhat longer odds, Magee is focused on Ukraine and Croatia, at +6600 and +3300, respectively.
“I think Ukraine may be able to surprise some teams,” he said. “But my personal favorite is Croatia. This team just plays well in tournaments. They’ve played together for a while, and the clock is ticking on when they’ll have another team like this to win something big.”
Croatia made it all the way to the semifinals at the 2022 World Cup, losing to eventual champion Argentina 3-0. The Croatian side reached the 16-team knockout stage at Euro 2020.
“I think they have a squad that is capable of making another deep run, just like they have in previous international tournaments,” Magee said.
Serbia joins Turkey at 100/1 in odds to win Euro 2024. But Magee thinks a wager on the Serbs would be better placed.
“Aside from Croatia, if I had to pick an even longer shot, I’ll go with their neighbors Serbia,” he said. “There is some definite quality on this squad. A front three of Aleksandar Mitrovic, Dusan Tadic and Dusan Vlahovic could be very fun to watch this summer.
“I’m not sure how deep they’ll make it, but I think there may be some value with this squad.”
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