Bear Bets is back and ready for the summer of stars.
So, without further ado, let’s get right into the action.
EURO 2024
Which nation among the heavy favorites (Germany, England, France, Portugal, Belgium) do you think is the least likely to win its group?
Holden: England
“If we think about Denmark, they have been pretty good in recent years. Serbia and Slovenia are both a little bit tricky. When the group came out, and people were saying, ‘Hey, England this, England that, and it’s a pretty easy group for them,’ I don’t know. I could maybe see them slipping up because they have some injury issues. Defensively, I’m not 100 percent convinced by them.”
“I think they probably [win the group], but they’re a team that I just feel they have the potential to blow up.”
What are your thoughts on host nation Germany and if it can make a deep run?
Holden: I like Germany’s value to win the tournament (+550)
“When you think about the players that they have, they did really well in some of the European competitions recently. Bayern Leverkusen were one of the best teams in all of Europe. … A lot of their players are on this squad. Being at home really does have a big impact. There’s a bit of pressure and the home fans are always going to be a little bit harder, but the last World Cup Germany hosted, they made it to the semifinal. I think their path to the semifinals is pretty doable.”
The Bear: Like the potential for a deep run
“It kind of has that feel like they finally overhauled the squad and maybe this is kind of building for the next World Cup. It would not surprise me to see them make a run to the semis.”
What’s your favorite last-place finish group bet?
Holden: Albania to finish last in Group B (-280)
“I think they’re happy to be there. I’m sure when that group was drawn and their coaches sat there in the room, they were like, ‘Spain. OK. Croatia. Oh, great. Italy. All right, sweet. Let’s go for a vacation.'”
Group D might be the most loaded group of the tournament. Are there any wagers you like involving the teams from that group or any thoughts?
The Bear: Netherlands to make it to the quarterfinals (+135)
“I think they’ll finish second in the group to France, who they really haven’t been able to beat in qualifying. I think they’ll get past whoever they draw on that road to 16. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if they were able to get one step further than that.”
Holden: Watch out for Austria
“Austria is a sneaky team. Austria is well-coached and that could be the potential wrinkle to the Dutch getting to a quarterfinal. I do think Austria will cause [the Netherlands] some problems.”
Are there any underdogs you like to make a run?
Holden: Croatia and Portugal
“I don’t know if I could call Croatia an underdog at this point with the run that they’ve been on, but yet I still think somehow at every major tournament they’re kind of overlooked.
“It feels a little cheap calling [Portugal] an underdog here, but they absolutely ran through qualifying. I still don’t write off Cristiano Ronaldo. He had 10 goals in qualifying.”
Who do you like for top goalscorer of the tournament?
Holden: Kylian Mbappe
“You have to really consider with the Golden Boot who you feel is gonna go far as a team. So, normally, France is a pretty sure bet for a semifinal. That’s why I really like Mbappe.”
COPA AMERICA 2024
What are your general thoughts on the United States entering the tournament?
Holden: Use this tournament to set expectations and goals for 2026 World Cup
“This is really our opportunity to find out just how good we may be or can be or how good we are now, and how much room we have for improvement. We’ve been rinsing Mexico now consistently for the past couple of years. But the big question has always been, can you beat an England? Can you beat a Germany? Can you beat Brazil? Can you beat Colombia? Can you beat a real team to get to a serious part of a competition, and that’s why I’m excited. I don’t really want to call this a dress rehearsal. I want to see this U.S. team really try and win this.”
The United States makes it to the final if …
Holden: Someone can step up and be an elite goalscorer
“The United States will make it to the final if Christian Pulisic is able to play at the level that he played for AC Milan this year, if the Gio Reyna that we’ve seen with the men’s national team continues to play well, and the biggest one of all of these is if we have a goalscorer that steps up and really is a high-level player. That was the big thing missing in Qatar.”
Looking at the other nations, do you see any way that Argentina doesn’t reach the final? It’s at -135 to make the final entering the tournament.
Holden: Would lean toward Argentina making the final
“If it’s Ecuador against Argentina in the semifinal or Argentina against Mexico, even with what Mexico would have as a home field advantage, I just don’t see [Argentina losing]. Lionel Messi and Lautaro Martinez. It’s still Rodrigo de Paul and Nico Gonzalez. I mean, they just still have the big guys from the World Cup.”
Who would you bet on to win the Golden Boot?
Holden: Someone from Brazil
“Vinicius Junior hasn’t quite had his big moment in the Brazil shirt and something to think about is that Neymar is not going to be a part of this tournament. He has always been the focal point of the Brazilian attack. If you can get somebody now that’s going to step up, whether that’s Vinicius or Rodrigo, I think you can get some good value there.”
Who would you bet to finish last in their group?
Holden: Costa Rica and Bolivia
“Bolivia just played in a friendly last week against Mexico, but it was Mexico’s U-23 team and they lost that game. They consistently just get trucked.”
What do you think the final will be?
Holden: Argentina-Brazil
“Vinnie Junior, Rodrigo, Endrick, even the defense that Brazil is going to roll out some of the best goalkeepers in the world, [should make them tough to beat].”
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