This episode of “Bear Bets” discussed Matchday 3 of the Euros, with a particularly interesting situation unfolding in Group E, as well as looking at Team USA’s first match in Copa América as they take on Bolivia Sunday.
To start, Chris “The Bear” Fallica and Geoff Schwartz discussed potential outcomes coming out of the third group stage of the Euros and some value bets.
Let’s dive into the fun.
Geoff: “We need Croatia to win, obviously. We need Spain to win. That’s the easiest way to do this. But do we take Croatia to finish last in the group at +130? Italy’s +2000, a lot of things have to go wrong for Italy to finish last in the group. Or do we just hold tight, stick to our guns, Croatia wins and then Spain comes out, even though they’ve won the group already, they play really hard, they try to win, and they beat Albania. What do we do?”
The Bear: “I would be surprised if Spain did not come out with a win. Their second unit is still better than Albania. They have so much talent. Croatia to finish at the bottom, that’s the interesting play. Maybe it comes to goal differential, who knows, I would not put it past Croatia beating Italy. Italy did not look good the other day against Spain at all. They looked slow, they looked disorganized in the back. The only issue is that was against Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal, and all the great players Spain has, and clearly, Croatia are not that side. I think maybe Croatia to finish bottom, just in case you get a little 1-1 and Italy just tends to hunker down. I don’t hate trying to get a little bit back in case that happens so I might have to examine that.”
The Bear: “England is at the top of the group right now, even though they look non-convincing. The team got a point against Slovenia and that will be good enough to give them first place. … England looks like a team without a real midfield. Putting Trent Alexander-Arnold in a position that he hasn’t really played, they are bringing in Conor Gallagher; people are wondering why Col Palmer is sitting on the bench. It feels like England is one of those sides where individual pieces are a whole of a lot greater than the sum of the whole part.”
Schwartz: “Turkey just needs a point to guarantee itself a spot in the next round. If it goes up 1-0 or it’s tied at one, two or whatever, it’s just going to shut it down. It doesn’t need to push it up the field, commit turnovers and have weird things happen. Taking a draw in this match feels like the play in this one. That feels like a play that might be worth to possibly make live at some point as well.”
PICK: Draw (+250)
The Bear: “There is one play I would make on a player from France [to win Player of the Tournament]. … N’Golo Kante won his second straight Player of the Match award in the game against the Netherlands. If you look around now, he’s down to about 12-to-1 to win Player of the Tournament. I don’t think that’s gotten to a point where you can’t play that. Kylian Mbappe hasn’t scored. Antoine Griezmann hasn’t been great. If France were to win, Kante is going to win it. If you can still find a good price for Kante to win it, I would take it.”
PICK: N’Golo Kante to win 2024 Euro Player of the Tournament (+1200)
The Bear: “If Scotland were to win, and they are sitting on four points, that will probably be good enough to get them through Hungary, their tournament is probably done. I don’t think three would be enough. … The one play we could look at in Group A would be Musiala to lead the tournament in goals. He is probably down there around 9-to-1. He is sitting on two, with two players that may not make it to the knockout round. So he could be the only player with two goals. We will see what happens.”
The Bear: “It’s a perfect opportunity for the US to get the COPA off on the right foot, as they face a team that’s ranked 84th. Nothing other than a 2-0, clean win would really be expected here.
“I laid a goal and a half with the USA and see them keeping a clean sheet. You can get that bet at +120.”
PICK: USA -1.5 + KEEP A CLEAN SHEET (+120)
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