“Bear Bets” are real wagers that Chris “The Bear” Fallica is actually making.
Overall tournament record: 9-20, -10.9 units
As for gambling on these matches, I’ll give you my best bets throughout the tournament. Basically, if I see an edge, and I’m betting on it, I’ll share it. I want us all to win!
I believe in transparency, so I’ll be sharing my tournament best bets record over the next several weeks.
Remember, only bet what you are comfortable with! So let’s go ahead and dive into the fun.
(All times ET)
There’s nothing in this tournament so far to suggest England is better than Switzerland and deserves to be favored here. This is a side that has averaged three shots on target in the competition and will now be down Marc Guehi, who might have been its best player so far. At minimum, he’s been the one lineup call Gareth Southgate has gotten right. Switzerland was undeservedly an underdog against Italy and dominated that match, and are undeservedly an underdog here, and I expect it to advance here as well.
PICK: Switzerland to advance (+135)PICK: Under 2.5 goals
France hasn’t itself scored a goal in the run of play this tourney, collecting two own goals and a Kylian Mbappé penalty. Every knockout round match under Didier Deschamps feels the same: opponent appears to have France on the ropes, like Belgium did, and then there’s the own goal and a 1-0 win. Five of France’s last seven matches in the Euros have ended in a draw, while Les Bleus have kept a clean sheet in five of the last six. There’s no Rabiot here for France, which might mean it gets a boost/different dimension with Camavinga. Portugal feels a little fool’s gold to me. Three goals vs. Türkiye (including an own goal) and then none in 210 minutes since. It’ll be hard-pressed to score here as well.
PICK: France to win 1-0 (+425)PICK: France to win 2-0 (+800)PICK: Under 2.5 goals
Türkiye’s matches have been wild, as it has both conceded in its first four games and seen all four matches tally at least three goals. This might be where the road ends, as it is down a couple starters because of yellow card accumulation and face a Dutch side that’s coming off a thorough win over Romania. If you’re holding a Cody Gakpo Golden Boot ticket, you’ve gotta like your chances, as he’s co-leader with three, and he’s likely to score here and get at least one more game, too.
PICK: Cody Gakpo anytime goal (+135)PICK: Netherlands Over 1.5 goals
With the Copa América games going straight to kicks, it will be interesting if teams choose to settle for a game coming down to that coin flip. But I can’t see many, if any, goals here. Canada hasn’t scored but once in the tourney despite having played 11-on-10 for a good part of it. Venezuela has conceded more than a goal once in 17 matches. This one feels nervy, as both teams have a real chance to reach the semifinals and likely take on the reigning world champions.
PICK: Venezuela/Canada draw (+200)PICK: Under 2.5 goals
Colombia is unbeaten in the last 26 and has been scoring early lately — six straight matches with a first-half goal. This feels pretty straightforward for Luis Diaz, James Rodriguez and company against a team which miraculously is in this spot.
PICK: Colombia -1.5 (-115)PICK: Colombia HT/FT (-115)
Like England vs. Switzerland in Euros, this is another line which makes no sense. Nothing we’ve seen in the tourney suggests Brazil, outside of the name Brazil, should be favored to advance here. Uruguay just won 2-0 in World Cup qualifying, where, oh by the way, Brazil is currently sixth and there’s no Vini Jr. for this match. Sure, he’s been underwhelming internationally, but it’s still a massive loss. Once shot markets get posted, I’m interested in a Darwin Nunez prop, as Brazil gives up a bunch of chances.
PICK: Uruguay to advance (-105)
Chris “The Bear” Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, “The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!” Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.
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